Future Increase of the Incidence of Mesothelioma Due to Occupational Exposure to Asbestos in the Past
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
To estimate the future course of mesothelioma mortality as a result of
occupational exposure to asbestos in the past.
DESIGN:
Cohort age model.
SETTING:
Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the
Netherlands.
METHODS:
A cohort age model was developed, based upon age-specific rates of
pleural mesothelioma mortality during 1969-1994. This model was linked
to the future trend in mortality among Dutch men as projected by the
Central Bureau for Statistics in order to predict the future course of
mesothelioma mortality in the period 1995-2030.
RESULTS:
In the next 35 years about 20,000 cases of pleural mesothelioma among
men are expected. The projection results in a peak of annual male
mesothelioma deaths of approximately 700 in about the year 2018. After
2020 the annual mortality will rapidly decline to about 450 cases in
2030. It is expected that this rapid decline will continue after 2030.
In the 1943-1947 birth cohort pleural mesothelioma may account for
0.87% of all deaths. Exposure to asbestos at work largely explains this
particular mortality pattern.
CONCLUSION:
Exposure to asbestos at work has created an important public health
problem among Dutch men.
Address Erasmus Universiteit, Instituut Maatschappelijke
Gezondheidszorg, Rotterdam. Source Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd,
141(22):1093-8 1997 May 31
Author Burdorf A; Barendregt JJ; Swuste PH; Heederik DJ
*** POSTED NOVEMBER 6, 1998 ***